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Kalshi 15-minute crypto markets, live

Every coin's current window, updating every couple of seconds: the strike, the live price, and what Kalshi is pricing. Below it, the last 24 hours settled against the official outcome.

Right now

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The last 24 hours

Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

634 windows settled across 7 coins · Up 56% / Down 44% · median move 12.1 bps from strike to close · biggest single window XRP 1.49% at Thu 2:15pm · 9% of windows were coin-flips (settled within 2 bps of the strike) · longest run of the same outcome on one coin: 19 windows.

By coin, last 24 hours

CoinWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest windowCoin-flipsWildest hour (ET)
BTC Bitcoin9353%9.70.90% 2:15pm14%10:00
ETH Ethereum9255%10.61.00% 2:15pm11%13:00
SOL Solana9058%16.91.36% 2:15pm7%13:00
XRP XRP9057%16.61.49% 2:15pm7%13:00
DOGE Dogecoin9257%12.91.12% 2:15pm11%13:00
BNB BNB8761%10.10.49% 9:30am9%22:00
HYPE Hyperliquid9051%14.21.03% 2:15pm6%13:00

When it moves

00
13		01
19		02
8		03
9		04
12		05
7		06
10		07
20		08
18		09
11		10
8		11
10		12
16		13
43		14
20		15
15		16
10		17
7		18
11		19
10		20
11		21
15		22
17		23
12
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

Bitcoin, window by window

Thu 1:15pm: -28.3 bpsThu 1:45pm: -12.0 bpsThu 2:00pm: +10.0 bpsThu 2:15pm: +89.6 bpsThu 2:30pm: +11.0 bpsThu 2:45pm: -2.6 bpsThu 3:00pm: +0.5 bpsThu 3:15pm: +23.4 bpsThu 3:30pm: +5.3 bpsThu 3:45pm: +4.6 bpsThu 4:00pm: +13.3 bpsThu 4:15pm: -15.6 bpsThu 4:30pm: +4.3 bpsThu 4:45pm: -1.6 bpsThu 5:00pm: -8.1 bpsThu 5:15pm: -10.6 bpsThu 5:30pm: +1.7 bpsThu 5:45pm: -0.9 bpsThu 6:00pm: +19.5 bpsThu 6:15pm: -6.1 bpsThu 6:30pm: +12.3 bpsThu 6:45pm: -1.9 bpsThu 7:00pm: -6.2 bpsThu 7:15pm: -0.5 bpsThu 7:30pm: -5.6 bpsThu 7:45pm: -6.8 bpsThu 8:00pm: +11.0 bpsThu 8:15pm: -10.8 bpsThu 8:30pm: +10.0 bpsThu 8:45pm: -3.7 bpsThu 9:00pm: -8.9 bpsThu 9:15pm: +11.0 bpsThu 9:30pm: +17.0 bpsThu 9:45pm: -0.4 bpsThu 10:00pm: +7.6 bpsThu 10:15pm: -13.8 bpsThu 10:30pm: +13.9 bpsThu 10:45pm: +9.4 bpsThu 11:00pm: -6.6 bpsThu 11:15pm: +17.3 bpsThu 11:30pm: +22.0 bpsThu 11:45pm: +5.1 bpsFri 12:00am: +11.2 bpsFri 12:15am: -9.2 bpsFri 12:30am: -12.7 bpsFri 12:45am: -10.9 bpsFri 1:00am: +12.7 bpsFri 1:15am: +19.3 bpsFri 1:30am: -2.8 bpsFri 1:45am: -17.7 bpsFri 2:00am: +12.4 bpsFri 2:15am: +2.3 bpsFri 2:30am: +13.4 bpsFri 2:45am: -0.4 bpsFri 3:00am: -4.3 bpsFri 3:15am: -0.9 bpsFri 3:30am: +2.2 bpsFri 3:45am: +12.8 bpsFri 4:00am: +5.2 bpsFri 4:15am: -15.6 bpsFri 4:30am: -1.0 bpsFri 4:45am: +13.9 bpsFri 5:00am: -17.7 bpsFri 5:15am: +9.7 bpsFri 5:30am: -4.6 bpsFri 5:45am: +6.1 bpsFri 6:00am: +7.4 bpsFri 6:15am: -6.1 bpsFri 6:30am: -25.9 bpsFri 6:45am: +14.5 bpsFri 7:00am: -7.2 bpsFri 7:15am: +10.3 bpsFri 7:30am: +49.9 bpsFri 7:45am: +28.7 bpsFri 8:00am: +6.5 bpsFri 8:15am: -23.8 bpsFri 8:30am: -7.9 bpsFri 8:45am: -1.4 bpsFri 9:00am: +4.4 bpsFri 9:15am: -10.0 bpsFri 9:30am: -50.4 bpsFri 9:45am: +7.2 bpsFri 10:00am: +27.8 bpsFri 10:15am: +39.6 bpsFri 10:45am: -2.0 bpsFri 11:00am: -26.6 bpsFri 11:15am: +6.9 bpsFri 11:30am: +10.1 bpsFri 11:45am: -13.0 bpsFri 12:00pm: +3.7 bpsFri 12:15pm: -23.3 bpsFri 12:30pm: -0.5 bpsFri 12:45pm: +4.1 bps
Last 93 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

How to read this

A basis point (bps) is 0.01%. A 15-minute window that closes 10 bps above its strike on Bitcoin at $84,000 moved about $84. Because the contract pays $1 or $0 no matter how far the close lands from the strike, a 1 bps window and a 100 bps window settle the same way, which is why "coin-flip" windows matter: they are decided by noise in the final seconds. The wildest hours are where entries late in the window get expensive. Full explainer of how these markets work →

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