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Kalshi HYPE 15-minute market: this week's numbers

Hyperliquid up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 90 windows · Up 51% · median move 14.2 bps · biggest 1.03%
Last 7 days: 617 windows · Up 51% · median move 16.0 bps (90th percentile 44) · biggest 1.48% at Tue 9:45pm · coin-flips 8% · wildest hour 09:00 ET (26 bps) · calmest 17:00 (7 bps) · longest same-outcome run 11

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 1:15pm: -81.9 bpsThu 2:00pm: +7.1 bpsThu 2:15pm: +103.0 bpsThu 2:30pm: +12.6 bpsThu 2:45pm: -26.7 bpsThu 3:00pm: -15.2 bpsThu 3:15pm: +9.6 bpsThu 3:30pm: +21.3 bpsThu 3:45pm: +15.0 bpsThu 4:00pm: +35.9 bpsThu 4:15pm: -18.0 bpsThu 4:30pm: +14.0 bpsThu 4:45pm: -4.7 bpsThu 5:00pm: -5.7 bpsThu 5:15pm: -9.3 bpsThu 5:30pm: -3.0 bpsThu 5:45pm: +3.5 bpsThu 6:00pm: -3.5 bpsThu 6:15pm: -28.6 bpsThu 6:30pm: +19.4 bpsThu 6:45pm: -4.1 bpsThu 7:00pm: -14.8 bpsThu 7:15pm: +10.0 bpsThu 7:30pm: -9.8 bpsThu 7:45pm: -25.5 bpsThu 8:00pm: +18.0 bpsThu 8:15pm: -21.7 bpsThu 8:30pm: +25.5 bpsThu 8:45pm: +1.7 bpsThu 9:00pm: +5.4 bpsThu 9:15pm: +29.0 bpsThu 9:30pm: +16.6 bpsThu 9:45pm: -8.3 bpsThu 10:00pm: -6.5 bpsThu 10:15pm: -31.4 bpsThu 10:30pm: +42.5 bpsThu 10:45pm: +9.9 bpsThu 11:00pm: +8.9 bpsThu 11:15pm: +29.5 bpsThu 11:30pm: +14.5 bpsThu 11:45pm: -8.0 bpsFri 12:15am: -17.8 bpsFri 12:30am: -28.5 bpsFri 12:45am: +19.8 bpsFri 1:00am: +25.2 bpsFri 1:15am: +19.3 bpsFri 1:30am: +1.2 bpsFri 1:45am: -35.0 bpsFri 2:00am: +16.7 bpsFri 2:15am: -7.5 bpsFri 2:30am: +7.4 bpsFri 2:45am: +4.5 bpsFri 3:00am: -9.6 bpsFri 3:15am: +37.5 bpsFri 3:30am: +11.2 bpsFri 3:45am: -8.9 bpsFri 4:00am: -2.1 bpsFri 4:15am: -23.7 bpsFri 4:30am: -21.7 bpsFri 4:45am: +21.9 bpsFri 5:00am: -4.9 bpsFri 5:30am: +0.5 bpsFri 5:45am: +16.9 bpsFri 6:00am: -11.7 bpsFri 6:15am: -6.1 bpsFri 6:30am: -44.2 bpsFri 6:45am: -10.6 bpsFri 7:00am: -4.4 bpsFri 7:15am: +31.0 bpsFri 7:30am: +41.3 bpsFri 7:45am: -20.7 bpsFri 8:00am: +12.6 bpsFri 8:15am: -19.3 bpsFri 8:30am: -61.0 bpsFri 8:45am: -1.3 bpsFri 9:00am: +2.2 bpsFri 9:15am: -26.2 bpsFri 9:30am: -44.8 bpsFri 9:45am: -11.0 bpsFri 10:00am: -8.2 bpsFri 10:15am: +81.6 bpsFri 10:45am: +3.2 bpsFri 11:00am: -53.2 bpsFri 11:15am: +5.7 bpsFri 11:30am: -8.0 bpsFri 11:45am: -1.9 bpsFri 12:00pm: +8.3 bpsFri 12:15pm: -57.7 bpsFri 12:30pm: +6.4 bpsFri 12:45pm: +18.7 bps
Last 90 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/024055%29.81.14%
Sat 10/038756%10.70.45%
Sun 10/048951%12.40.81%
Mon 10/059253%24.30.87%
Tue 10/068949%15.91.48%
Wed 10/078948%19.30.97%
Thu 10/088246%18.01.17%
Fri 10/094949%12.60.82%

By hour of day

00
17		01
22		02
12		03
16		04
24		05
17		06
12		07
10		08
12		09
26		10
19		11
10		12
24		13
17		14
21		15
19		16
15		17
7		18
23		19
10		20
12		21
18		22
17		23
12
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median HYPE window moves 16 bps from strike to close, and 8% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

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