Kalshi DOGE 15-minute market: this week's numbers
Dogecoin up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.
Last 24h: 92 windows ยท Up 57% ยท median move 12.9 bps ยท biggest 1.12%
Last 7 days: 625 windows ยท Up 50% ยท median move 12.4 bps (90th percentile 38) ยท biggest 3.09% at Thu 11:15am ยท coin-flips 8% ยท wildest hour 10:00 ET (22 bps) ยท calmest 06:00 (8 bps) ยท longest same-outcome run 8
Last 7 days: 625 windows ยท Up 50% ยท median move 12.4 bps (90th percentile 38) ยท biggest 3.09% at Thu 11:15am ยท coin-flips 8% ยท wildest hour 10:00 ET (22 bps) ยท calmest 06:00 (8 bps) ยท longest same-outcome run 8
Window by window, last 24 hours
Last 92 windows ยท close vs strike, basis points ยท green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) ยท hover a bar
By day
| Day | Windows | Up | Median move (bps) | Biggest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 10/02 | 41 | 54% | 13.5 | 2.53% |
| Sat 10/03 | 90 | 47% | 6.6 | 0.39% |
| Sun 10/04 | 91 | 57% | 10.8 | 0.72% |
| Mon 10/05 | 92 | 46% | 15.3 | 0.79% |
| Tue 10/06 | 88 | 49% | 12.5 | 2.10% |
| Wed 10/07 | 91 | 47% | 15.3 | 0.58% |
| Thu 10/08 | 82 | 50% | 18.5 | 3.09% |
| Fri 10/09 | 50 | 58% | 12.3 | 0.74% |
By hour of day
| 00 9 | 01 16 | 02 11 | 03 12 | 04 9 | 05 12 | 06 8 | 07 17 | 08 12 | 09 15 | 10 22 | 11 17 | 12 13 | 13 15 | 14 15 | 15 15 | 16 11 | 17 15 | 18 11 | 19 12 | 20 12 | 21 16 | 22 14 | 23 10 |
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.
What this means if you trade it
The median DOGE window moves 12 bps from strike to close, and 8% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70ยข you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator โ ยท How the markets work โ
DirectionalBot watches every one of these windows, on your own Kalshi account.
Free 1-hour trial, no card. Paper mode if you'd rather watch first.