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Kalshi BTC 15-minute market: this week's numbers

Bitcoin up/down windows on Kalshi over the last 7 days, settled against the official outcome. Updated Oct 9, 1:05pm ET. Refreshes every hour.

Last 24h: 93 windows · Up 53% · median move 9.7 bps · biggest 0.90%
Last 7 days: 638 windows · Up 50% · median move 6.7 bps (90th percentile 23) · biggest 1.06% at Tue 9:45pm · coin-flips 19% · wildest hour 10:00 ET (16 bps) · calmest 15:00 (4 bps) · longest same-outcome run 10

Window by window, last 24 hours

Thu 1:15pm: -28.3 bpsThu 1:45pm: -12.0 bpsThu 2:00pm: +10.0 bpsThu 2:15pm: +89.6 bpsThu 2:30pm: +11.0 bpsThu 2:45pm: -2.6 bpsThu 3:00pm: +0.5 bpsThu 3:15pm: +23.4 bpsThu 3:30pm: +5.3 bpsThu 3:45pm: +4.6 bpsThu 4:00pm: +13.3 bpsThu 4:15pm: -15.6 bpsThu 4:30pm: +4.3 bpsThu 4:45pm: -1.6 bpsThu 5:00pm: -8.1 bpsThu 5:15pm: -10.6 bpsThu 5:30pm: +1.7 bpsThu 5:45pm: -0.9 bpsThu 6:00pm: +19.5 bpsThu 6:15pm: -6.1 bpsThu 6:30pm: +12.3 bpsThu 6:45pm: -1.9 bpsThu 7:00pm: -6.2 bpsThu 7:15pm: -0.5 bpsThu 7:30pm: -5.6 bpsThu 7:45pm: -6.8 bpsThu 8:00pm: +11.0 bpsThu 8:15pm: -10.8 bpsThu 8:30pm: +10.0 bpsThu 8:45pm: -3.7 bpsThu 9:00pm: -8.9 bpsThu 9:15pm: +11.0 bpsThu 9:30pm: +17.0 bpsThu 9:45pm: -0.4 bpsThu 10:00pm: +7.6 bpsThu 10:15pm: -13.8 bpsThu 10:30pm: +13.9 bpsThu 10:45pm: +9.4 bpsThu 11:00pm: -6.6 bpsThu 11:15pm: +17.3 bpsThu 11:30pm: +22.0 bpsThu 11:45pm: +5.1 bpsFri 12:00am: +11.2 bpsFri 12:15am: -9.2 bpsFri 12:30am: -12.7 bpsFri 12:45am: -10.9 bpsFri 1:00am: +12.7 bpsFri 1:15am: +19.3 bpsFri 1:30am: -2.8 bpsFri 1:45am: -17.7 bpsFri 2:00am: +12.4 bpsFri 2:15am: +2.3 bpsFri 2:30am: +13.4 bpsFri 2:45am: -0.4 bpsFri 3:00am: -4.3 bpsFri 3:15am: -0.9 bpsFri 3:30am: +2.2 bpsFri 3:45am: +12.8 bpsFri 4:00am: +5.2 bpsFri 4:15am: -15.6 bpsFri 4:30am: -1.0 bpsFri 4:45am: +13.9 bpsFri 5:00am: -17.7 bpsFri 5:15am: +9.7 bpsFri 5:30am: -4.6 bpsFri 5:45am: +6.1 bpsFri 6:00am: +7.4 bpsFri 6:15am: -6.1 bpsFri 6:30am: -25.9 bpsFri 6:45am: +14.5 bpsFri 7:00am: -7.2 bpsFri 7:15am: +10.3 bpsFri 7:30am: +49.9 bpsFri 7:45am: +28.7 bpsFri 8:00am: +6.5 bpsFri 8:15am: -23.8 bpsFri 8:30am: -7.9 bpsFri 8:45am: -1.4 bpsFri 9:00am: +4.4 bpsFri 9:15am: -10.0 bpsFri 9:30am: -50.4 bpsFri 9:45am: +7.2 bpsFri 10:00am: +27.8 bpsFri 10:15am: +39.6 bpsFri 10:45am: -2.0 bpsFri 11:00am: -26.6 bpsFri 11:15am: +6.9 bpsFri 11:30am: +10.1 bpsFri 11:45am: -13.0 bpsFri 12:00pm: +3.7 bpsFri 12:15pm: -23.3 bpsFri 12:30pm: -0.5 bpsFri 12:45pm: +4.1 bps
Last 93 windows · close vs strike, basis points · green = closed above the strike (Up), red = below (Down) · hover a bar

By day

DayWindowsUpMedian move (bps)Biggest
Fri 10/024255%5.40.68%
Sat 10/038951%2.60.19%
Sun 10/049454%5.90.55%
Mon 10/059346%8.60.62%
Tue 10/069149%7.21.06%
Wed 10/079445%8.50.38%
Thu 10/088448%10.81.06%
Fri 10/095155%10.00.50%

By hour of day

00
5		01
6		02
9		03
6		04
7		05
5		06
7		07
9		08
8		09
9		10
16		11
10		12
4		13
9		14
6		15
4		16
4		17
7		18
5		19
6		20
5		21
9		22
9		23
7
Median |move| (bps) by hour of day, ET. Darker = wilder.

What this means if you trade it

The median BTC window moves 7 bps from strike to close, and 19% of windows are decided by less than 2 bps, effectively a coin flip in the last seconds. The contract price you pay should reflect that: at 70¢ you need to be right 72% of the time after fees, and no 15-minute market on any coin delivers that on the noisy windows. Break-even calculator → · How the markets work →

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